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Tallinna Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn — Meistriliiga 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
3/16/2024MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 3Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Tallinna Kalev15%
×Draw20%
FC Levadia Tallinn65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
0.95
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 128% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 129 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
0.99
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.22

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.13
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.91

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
35%
Tallinna Kalev or FC Levadia Tallinn
80%
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn
85%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
5%
FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
61%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
25%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
7%
FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
89%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
64%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
19%
FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 0.99, concedes 2.13 · 106 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 0.99 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.22 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
15%
level
20%
FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
65%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinna Kalev vs FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Tallinna Kalev 2-0 in Meistriliiga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.