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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tallinna Kalev — Meistriliiga 2026

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
6/18/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 17A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn70%
×Draw17%
Tallinna Kalev13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Levadia Tallinn
2.43
Tallinna Kalev
0.92

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 164% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
2.46
Tallinna Kalev
1.00

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
2.40

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Tallinna Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw
87%
FC Levadia Tallinn or Tallinna Kalev
83%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
30%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
48%
Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
91%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
69%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
43%
Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
60%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
23%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
85%
Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.46 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.43

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.00 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
70%
level
17%
Tallinna Kalev scores more
13%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: FC Levadia Tallinn 4–0 Tallinna Kalev

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Tallinna Kalev 4-0 in Meistriliiga on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn.