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Tallinna Kalev III vs Tallinna Kalev — Cup 2026

Tallinna Kalev III
Tallinna Kalev III
FT
1 – 8
HT: 1 – 4
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalevadvanced
S. Kubensky 35'
R. Ilves 87', 54'
M. Udebuluzor 83', 29'
M. Tomberg 79'
M. Sambe 34'
A. Surogin 32'
A. Svedovski 15'
9/3/2025CupCup · Round of 32Raja Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tallinna Kalev III18%
×Draw14%
Tallinna Kalev68%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev III
2.29
Tallinna Kalev
4.33

Tallinna Kalev creates 89% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev III
3.33
Tallinna Kalev
4.00

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev III
4.67
Tallinna Kalev
1.25

finishing

Tallinna Kalev III+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev III ↓

Tallinna Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–23%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
88%12%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev III or draw
32%
Tallinna Kalev III or Tallinna Kalev
86%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
82%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev III wins by 2+
8%
Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev III 1+ goals
90%
Tallinna Kalev III 2+ goals
66%
Tallinna Kalev III 3+ goals
40%
Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
98%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
92%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev III (draw refunded)
20%
Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev III at home — creates 3.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev III attack 3.33 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Tallinna Kalev attack 4.00 + Tallinna Kalev III defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tallinna Kalev III scores more
18%
level
14%
Tallinna Kalev scores more
68%

Tallinna Kalev at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Svedovski
29'
M. Udebuluzor
32'
A. Surogin
34'
M. Sambe
35'
S. Kubensky
54'
R. Ilves
79'
M. Tomberg
83'
M. Udebuluzor
87'
R. Ilves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinna Kalev III vs Tallinna Kalev

Tallinna Kalev beat Tallinna Kalev III 8-1 in Cup on September 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Svedovski (15'), M. Udebuluzor (29', 83'), A. Surogin (32'), M. Sambe (34'), S. Kubensky (35'), R. Ilves (54', 87'), M. Tomberg (79').

The match was played at Raja Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.