Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tallinna Kalev III vs JK Tabasalu — Cup 2026

Tallinna Kalev III
Tallinna Kalev III
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
S. Salei 90+1'
A. Anepaio 88', 47'
J. Luts 86'
S. Suppi 41', 13'
6/19/2024CupCup · 64th FinalsRaja Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tallinna Kalev III17%
×Draw14%
JK Tabasalu69%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev III
2.45
JK Tabasalu
4.72

JK Tabasalu creates 93% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev III
3.33
JK Tabasalu
4.78

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev III
4.67
JK Tabasalu
1.56

finishing

Tallinna Kalev III+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev III ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–34%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–4 (6%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
91%9%4.5
80%20%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev III or draw
31%
Tallinna Kalev III or JK Tabasalu
86%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
83%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev III wins by 2+
8%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev III 1+ goals
91%
Tallinna Kalev III 2+ goals
70%
Tallinna Kalev III 3+ goals
44%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
99%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
94%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
81%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev III (draw refunded)
20%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
89%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev III at home — creates 3.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev III attack 3.33 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.45

JK Tabasalu attack 4.78 + Tallinna Kalev III defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tallinna Kalev III scores more
17%
level
14%
JK Tabasalu scores more
69%

JK Tabasalu at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. Suppi
41'
S. Suppi
47'
A. Anepaio
86'
J. Luts
88'
A. Anepaio
90+1'
S. Salei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tallinna Kalev III 0–6 JK Tabasalu

JK Tabasalu beat Tallinna Kalev III 6-0 in Cup on June 19, 2024.

Goals: S. Suppi (13', 41'), A. Anepaio (47', 88'), J. Luts (86'), S. Salei (90+1').

The match was played at Raja Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.