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Tallinna Kalev II vs Tallinna FC Zapoos — Cup 2020

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Tallinna FC Zapoos
Tallinna FC Zapoosadvanced
R. Kaupmees 53'
Raiko Ilves 51'
K. Korasteljov 59' (OG), 55' (OG)
O. Karlson 48', 16'
R. Kuber 14'
8/14/2024CupCup · Round of 32Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tallinna Kalev II84%
×Draw8%
Tallinna FC Zapoos7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev II
5.58
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.79

Tallinna Kalev II creates 212% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.83

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev II
1.75
Tallinna FC Zapoos
7.17

finishing

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par
Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev II ↓

Tallinna FC Zapoos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
90%10%4.5
79%21%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev II or draw
93%
Tallinna Kalev II or Tallinna FC Zapoos
92%
Draw or Tallinna FC Zapoos
16%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
71%
Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
99%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
96%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
88%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals
83%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals
53%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
92%
Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos away — creates 1.83, concedes 7.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev II attack 4.00 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 7.17 → ÷2 → 5.58

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 1.83 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tallinna Kalev II scores more
84%
level
8%
Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more
7%

Tallinna Kalev II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
R. Kuber
16'
O. Karlson
48'
O. Karlson
51'
Raiko Ilves
53'
R. Kaupmees
55'
K. KorasteljovOwn goal
59'
K. KorasteljovOwn goal
77'
77'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinna Kalev II vs Tallinna FC Zapoos

Tallinna FC Zapoos beat Tallinna Kalev II 5-2 in Cup on August 14, 2024.

Goals: R. Kuber (14'), O. Karlson (16', 48'), Raiko Ilves (51'), R. Kaupmees (53'), K. Korasteljov (55' o.g., 59' o.g.).

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.