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Tallinna Kalev II vs Rakvere Tarvas — Esiliiga A 2026

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
5/25/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 12Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru (Tallinn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tallinna Kalev II54%
×Draw20%
Rakvere Tarvas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev II
2.35
Rakvere Tarvas
1.61

Tallinna Kalev II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev II
1.49
Rakvere Tarvas
0.83

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev II
2.40
Rakvere Tarvas
3.22

finishing

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par
Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev II ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev II or draw
74%
Tallinna Kalev II or Rakvere Tarvas
80%
Draw or Rakvere Tarvas
46%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
33%
Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
90%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
68%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
41%
Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
80%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
48%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
67%
Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.40 · 55 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.49 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rakvere Tarvas attack 0.83 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tallinna Kalev II scores more
54%
level
20%
Rakvere Tarvas scores more
26%

Tallinna Kalev II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Tallinna Kalev II 1–6 Rakvere Tarvas

Rakvere Tarvas beat Tallinna Kalev II 6-1 in Esiliiga A on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru (Tallinn).