Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tallinna Kalev II vs Maksatransport — Cup 2020

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev IIadvanced
FT
6 – 2
HT: 5 – 0
Maksatransport
Maksatransport
8/25/2022CupCup · Round of 32Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tallinna Kalev II49%
×Draw18%
Maksatransport34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev II
3.20
Maksatransport
2.67

Tallinna Kalev II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Maksatransport
3.60

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev II
1.75
Maksatransport
2.40

finishing

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par
Maksatransport+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev II ↓

Maksatransport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev II or draw
66%
Tallinna Kalev II or Maksatransport
82%
Draw or Maksatransport
51%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
32%
Maksatransport wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
96%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
82%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
60%
Maksatransport 1+ goals
93%
Maksatransport 2+ goals
74%
Maksatransport 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
59%
Maksatransport (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Maksatransport away — creates 3.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev II attack 4.00 + Maksatransport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Maksatransport attack 3.60 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tallinna Kalev II scores more
49%
level
18%
Maksatransport scores more
34%

Tallinna Kalev II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tallinna Kalev II 6–2 Maksatransport

Tallinna Kalev II beat Maksatransport 6-2 in Cup on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru in Tallinn.