Tallinna Kalev II 2–0 Läänemaa Haapsalu

Tallinna Kalev II

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Läänemaa Haapsalu

8/13/2025

Cup · Round of 64Kalevi Keskstaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tallinna Kalev II46%

×Draw19%

Läänemaa Haapsalu35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tallinna Kalev IIExpected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

2.38

Tallinna Kalev II

2.71

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.38

Tallinna Kalev II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

4.00

creates per match

3.00

1.75

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev II

4.00

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.00

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev II

1.75

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev II ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev II or draw

65%

Tallinna Kalev II or Läänemaa Haapsalu

81%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

54%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+

28%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals

93%

Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals

75%

Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals

50%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

91%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

68%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)

57%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev II attack 4.00 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.71

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tallinna Kalev II scores more

46%

level

19%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

35%

Tallinna Kalev II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff