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Tallinna Kalev II vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
4/21/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 7Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru (Tallinn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tallinna Kalev II50%
×Draw21%
K-Järve JK Järve29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev II
2.21
K-Järve JK Järve
1.65

Tallinna Kalev II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev II
1.45
K-Järve JK Järve
0.92

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev II
2.37
K-Järve JK Järve
2.97

finishing

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev II ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev II or draw
71%
Tallinna Kalev II or K-Järve JK Järve
79%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
50%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
30%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
89%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
65%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
38%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
81%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
49%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
63%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev II at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.37 · 51 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.97 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.45 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.21

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.92 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tallinna Kalev II scores more
50%
level
21%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
29%

Tallinna Kalev II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Tallinna Kalev II 3–4 K-Järve JK Järve

K-Järve JK Järve beat Tallinna Kalev II 4-3 in Esiliiga A on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru (Tallinn).