K-Järve JK Järve 3–3 Tallinna Kalev II

K-Järve JK Järve

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Tallinna Kalev II

V. Velikanov 55', 18'

I. Torinava 28' (pen)

H. Planken 68'

S. Loginov 61'

T. Jürisoo 33'

11/16/2022

Esiliiga A · Relegation RoundKohtla-Järve kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve34%

×Draw21%

Tallinna Kalev II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

K-Järve JK JärveExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.12

K-Järve JK Järve

1.85

Tallinna Kalev II

2.12

Tallinna Kalev II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 54 away

1.16

creates per match

1.56

2.68

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve

1.16

Tallinna Kalev II

1.56

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve

2.68

Tallinna Kalev II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw

55%

K-Järve JK Järve or Tallinna Kalev II

79%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev II

66%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

18%

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

84%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

55%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

28%

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals

88%

Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals

62%

Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

44%

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 68 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.16 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.85

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.56 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

34%

level

21%

Tallinna Kalev II scores more

45%

Tallinna Kalev II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

V. Velikanov

28'

I. TorinavaPenalty

33'

55'

61'

68'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff