Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tallinna FC Zapoos vs Tallinna Kalev — Cup 2020

Tallinna FC Zapoos
Tallinna FC Zapoos
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalevadvanced
O. Karlson 19'
F. Trawally 27'
R. Smirnov 22'
V. Võlma 16' (OG)
A. Kiivit 8'
8/23/2023CupCup · Round of 32Lasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos34%
×Draw19%
Tallinna Kalev48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
2.75

Tallinna Kalev creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.38
Tallinna Kalev
4.00

allows per match

Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.50
Tallinna Kalev
1.25

finishing

Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna FC Zapoos ↓

Tallinna Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Tallinna FC Zapoos or draw
52%
Tallinna FC Zapoos or Tallinna Kalev
81%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
66%

Winning margin

Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+
18%
Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals
90%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals
67%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals
40%
Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
93%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
75%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)
41%
Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna FC Zapoos at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 3.38 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.31

Tallinna Kalev attack 4.00 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more
34%
level
19%
Tallinna Kalev scores more
48%

Tallinna Kalev at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Kiivit
16'
V. VõlmaOwn goal
19'
O. Karlson
22'
R. Smirnov
27'
F. Trawally

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tallinna FC Zapoos 1–4 Tallinna Kalev

Tallinna Kalev beat Tallinna FC Zapoos 4-1 in Cup on August 23, 2023.

Goals: A. Kiivit (8'), V. Võlma (16' o.g.), O. Karlson (19'), R. Smirnov (22'), F. Trawally (27').

The match was played at Lasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.