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Tallinna FC Zapoos vs Saku Sporting — Cup 2020

Tallinna FC Zapoos
Tallinna FC Zapoosadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Saku Sporting
Saku Sporting
M. Valjas 75'
M. Mikko 41'
R. Kuber 2'
9/3/2025CupCup · Round of 32Lasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos79%
×Draw11%
Saku Sporting10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.19
Saku Sporting
1.58

Tallinna FC Zapoos creates 165% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.38
Saku Sporting
1.67

allows per match

Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.50
Saku Sporting
5.00

finishing

Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par
Saku Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna FC Zapoos ↓

Saku Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Tallinna FC Zapoos or draw
90%
Tallinna FC Zapoos or Saku Sporting
89%
Draw or Saku Sporting
21%

Winning margin

Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+
62%
Saku Sporting wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals
98%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals
91%
Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals
76%
Saku Sporting 1+ goals
79%
Saku Sporting 2+ goals
47%
Saku Sporting 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)
89%
Saku Sporting (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna FC Zapoos at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Saku Sporting away — creates 1.67, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 3.38 + Saku Sporting defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.19

Saku Sporting attack 1.67 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more
79%
level
11%
Saku Sporting scores more
10%

Tallinna FC Zapoos at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Tallinna FC Zapoos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
R. Kuber
41'
M. Mikko
75'
M. Valjas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tallinna FC Zapoos 3 – 0 Saku Sporting

Tallinna FC Zapoos beat Saku Sporting 3-0 in Cup on September 3, 2025.

Goals: R. Kuber (2'), M. Mikko (41'), M. Valjas (75').

The match was played at Lasnamäe Kergejõustikuhalli kunstmuruväljak in Tallinn.