Tallinding United 0–3 Marimoo: Result & Stats

Tallinding United

FT

0 – 3

Marimoo

7/31/2021

GFA League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tallinding United27%

×Draw35%

Marimoo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tallinding UnitedExpected goals in this matchMarimoo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

0.91

Tallinding United

0.71

Marimoo

0.91

Marimoo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

0.38

creates per match

0.89

0.92

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Tallinding United

0.38

Marimoo

0.89

allows per match

Tallinding United

0.92

Marimoo

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tallinding United+0.00on par

Marimoo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinding United ↓

Marimoo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–118%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Tallinding United or draw

62%

Tallinding United or Marimoo

65%

Draw or Marimoo

73%

Winning margin

Tallinding United wins by 2+

8%

Marimoo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tallinding United 1+ goals

51%

Tallinding United 2+ goals

16%

Tallinding United 3+ goals

4%

Marimoo 1+ goals

60%

Marimoo 2+ goals

23%

Marimoo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tallinding United (draw refunded)

41%

Marimoo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinding United at home — creates 0.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Marimoo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinding United attack 0.38 + Marimoo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.71

Marimoo attack 0.89 + Tallinding United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tallinding United scores more

27%

level

35%

Marimoo scores more

38%

Marimoo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marimoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff