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Talleres Remedios vs Quilmes — Primera Nacional 2026

Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quilmes
Quilmes
7/1/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Pablo Comelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Talleres Remedios33%
×Draw32%
Quilmes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Remedios
0.91
Quilmes
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 129 away

creates per match

Talleres Remedios
0.75
Quilmes
0.88

allows per match

Talleres Remedios
0.97
Quilmes
1.06

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par
Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw
66%
Talleres Remedios or Quilmes
68%
Draw or Quilmes
67%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
12%
Quilmes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
60%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
23%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
6%
Quilmes 1+ goals
61%
Quilmes 2+ goals
24%
Quilmes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
49%
Quilmes (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Quilmes away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 0.75 + Quilmes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Quilmes attack 0.88 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more
33%
level
32%
Quilmes scores more
34%

Quilmes at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Talleres Remedios 1–0 Quilmes

Talleres Remedios beat Quilmes 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pablo Comelli in Remedios Escalada, Provincia de Buenos Aires.