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Talleres Remedios vs Chacarita Juniors — Primera Nacional 2026

Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
3/15/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 6Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Talleres Remedios35%
×Draw32%
Chacarita Juniors34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Remedios
0.97
Chacarita Juniors
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 123 away

creates per match

Talleres Remedios
0.75
Chacarita Juniors
0.92

allows per match

Talleres Remedios
0.97
Chacarita Juniors
1.19

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par
Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

Chacarita Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw
66%
Talleres Remedios or Chacarita Juniors
68%
Draw or Chacarita Juniors
65%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
13%
Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
62%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
25%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
7%
Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
61%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
25%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
51%
Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 0.75 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.92 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more
35%
level
32%
Chacarita Juniors scores more
34%

Talleres Remedios at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Talleres Remedios 0–2 Chacarita Juniors

Chacarita Juniors beat Talleres Remedios 2-0 in Primera Nacional on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada in Buenos Aires.