Talleres Remedios 2–0 Brown DE Adrogue

Talleres Remedios

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brown DE Adrogue

2/17/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Pablo Comelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Talleres Remedios35%

×Draw32%

Brown DE Adrogue33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres RemediosExpected goals in this matchBrown DE Adrogue

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.91

Talleres Remedios

0.94

Brown DE Adrogue

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 97 away

0.75

creates per match

0.85

0.97

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Talleres Remedios

0.75

Brown DE Adrogue

0.85

allows per match

Talleres Remedios

0.97

Brown DE Adrogue

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

Brown DE Adrogue →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw

67%

Talleres Remedios or Brown DE Adrogue

68%

Draw or Brown DE Adrogue

65%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+

13%

Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals

61%

Talleres Remedios 2+ goals

24%

Talleres Remedios 3+ goals

7%

Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals

60%

Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals

23%

Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)

51%

Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Brown DE Adrogue away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 0.75 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.85 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more

35%

level

32%

Brown DE Adrogue scores more

33%

Talleres Remedios at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff