Talleres Córdoba Res. 4–2 Platense Res.

Talleres Córdoba Res.

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Platense Res.

2/22/2024

Reserve League · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Talleres Córdoba Res.48%

×Draw26%

Platense Res.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres Córdoba Res.Expected goals in this matchPlatense Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.05

Talleres Córdoba Res.

1.51

Platense Res.

1.05

Talleres Córdoba Res. creates 44% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

1.44

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Talleres Córdoba Res.

1.44

Platense Res.

0.90

allows per match

Talleres Córdoba Res.

1.21

Platense Res.

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Córdoba Res.+0.00on par

Platense Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Córdoba Res. ↓

Platense Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Talleres Córdoba Res. or draw

74%

Talleres Córdoba Res. or Platense Res.

74%

Draw or Platense Res.

52%

Winning margin

Talleres Córdoba Res. wins by 2+

24%

Platense Res. wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Talleres Córdoba Res. 1+ goals

78%

Talleres Córdoba Res. 2+ goals

44%

Talleres Córdoba Res. 3+ goals

19%

Platense Res. 1+ goals

65%

Platense Res. 2+ goals

28%

Platense Res. 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Talleres Córdoba Res. (draw refunded)

64%

Platense Res. (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Córdoba Res. at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Platense Res. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Córdoba Res. attack 1.44 + Platense Res. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Platense Res. attack 0.90 + Talleres Córdoba Res. defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Talleres Córdoba Res. scores more

48%

level

26%

Platense Res. scores more

26%

Talleres Córdoba Res. at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Talleres Córdoba Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff