Talavera 0–0 San Fernando CD: Result & Stats

Talavera

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Fernando CD

12/17/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Talavera39%

×Draw29%

San Fernando CD33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TalaveraExpected goals in this matchSan Fernando CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.05

Talavera

1.17

San Fernando CD

1.05

Talavera creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

1.02

creates per match

0.95

1.15

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Talavera

1.02

San Fernando CD

0.95

allows per match

Talavera

1.15

San Fernando CD

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talavera+0.00on par

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera ↓

San Fernando CD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Talavera or draw

67%

Talavera or San Fernando CD

71%

Draw or San Fernando CD

61%

Winning margin

Talavera wins by 2+

16%

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Talavera 1+ goals

69%

Talavera 2+ goals

33%

Talavera 3+ goals

11%

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

65%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

28%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Talavera (draw refunded)

54%

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera attack 1.02 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talavera scores more

39%

level

29%

San Fernando CD scores more

33%

Talavera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff