Talavera 0–1 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Talavera

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Ferrol

5/20/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Talavera31%

×Draw30%

Racing Ferrol39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TalaveraExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.13

Talavera

0.98

Racing Ferrol

1.13

Racing Ferrol creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 83 away

1.02

creates per match

1.10

1.15

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Talavera

1.02

Racing Ferrol

1.10

allows per match

Talavera

1.15

Racing Ferrol

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talavera+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Talavera or draw

61%

Talavera or Racing Ferrol

70%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

69%

Winning margin

Talavera wins by 2+

11%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Talavera 1+ goals

62%

Talavera 2+ goals

26%

Talavera 3+ goals

8%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

68%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

31%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Talavera (draw refunded)

45%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera attack 1.02 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talavera scores more

31%

level

30%

Racing Ferrol scores more

39%

Racing Ferrol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff