Talavera 0–0 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Talavera

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cordoba

3/5/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Talavera34%

×Draw30%

Cordoba36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TalaveraExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.05

Talavera

1.01

Cordoba

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

1.02

creates per match

0.95

1.15

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Talavera

1.02

Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Talavera

1.15

Cordoba

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talavera+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Talavera or draw

64%

Talavera or Cordoba

70%

Draw or Cordoba

66%

Winning margin

Talavera wins by 2+

13%

Cordoba wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Talavera 1+ goals

64%

Talavera 2+ goals

27%

Talavera 3+ goals

8%

Cordoba 1+ goals

65%

Cordoba 2+ goals

28%

Cordoba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Talavera (draw refunded)

49%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera attack 1.02 + Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Cordoba attack 0.95 + Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Talavera scores more

34%

level

30%

Cordoba scores more

36%

Cordoba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. Bueno

46'

Marco Camús← Cristian Carracedo

70'

Antonio Caballero← Javi Flores

70'

Willy Ledesma← Antonio Casas

77'

S. Loukou← Edu Gallardo

80'

De las Cuevas← M. Diouri

87'

Canario← Kike Márquez

90+4'

J. Moreno

Talavera

Cordoba

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Díaz

77'▲S. Loukou←▼Edu Gallardo

Talavera substitutes

LoukouMohammedSotoLozanoPerdiOuédraogo

Manager: Germán Crespo

46'▲Marco Camús←▼Cristian Carracedo

70'▲Antonio Caballero←▼Javi Flores

70'▲Willy Ledesma←▼Antonio Casas

80'▲De las Cuevas←▼M. Diouri

87'▲Canario←▼Kike Márquez

Cordoba substitutes

CamúsCaballeroLedesmaCuevasCanarioJiménezJiménezRamosBarbaAlonsoRuizPicón