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Talavera vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Talavera
Talavera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
4/2/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Talavera40%
×Draw30%
Badajoz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talavera
1.15
Badajoz
0.95

Talavera creates 21% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 37 away

creates per match

Talavera
1.02
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Talavera
1.15
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Talavera+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Talavera or draw
70%
Talavera or Badajoz
70%
Draw or Badajoz
60%

Winning margin

Talavera wins by 2+
17%
Badajoz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Talavera 1+ goals
68%
Talavera 2+ goals
32%
Talavera 3+ goals
11%
Badajoz 1+ goals
61%
Badajoz 2+ goals
25%
Badajoz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Talavera (draw refunded)
57%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera attack 1.02 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Talavera scores more
40%
level
30%
Badajoz scores more
30%

Talavera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Talavera vs Badajoz

Talavera beat Badajoz 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.