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Talavera vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Talavera
Talavera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
1/8/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Talavera38%
×Draw28%
AD Ceuta FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talavera
1.20
AD Ceuta FC
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

creates per match

Talavera
1.02
AD Ceuta FC
1.11

allows per match

Talavera
1.15
AD Ceuta FC
1.37

finishing

Talavera+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Talavera or draw
66%
Talavera or AD Ceuta FC
72%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
62%

Winning margin

Talavera wins by 2+
16%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Talavera 1+ goals
70%
Talavera 2+ goals
34%
Talavera 3+ goals
12%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
68%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
31%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Talavera (draw refunded)
52%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera attack 1.02 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Talavera scores more
38%
level
28%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
34%

Talavera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Talavera 2–0 AD Ceuta FC

Talavera beat AD Ceuta FC 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.