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Talasgücü Belediyespor vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Talasgücü Belediyespor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
C. Yasak 85'
T. Kanarya 55', 52', 30' (pen)
U. Eksi 33'
2/15/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 21Kayseri Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Yan Açık Saha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Talasgücü Belediyespor25%
×Draw23%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.25
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.88

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.33
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.42

allows per match

Talasgücü Belediyespor
2.33
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.17

finishing

Talasgücü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talasgücü Belediyespor ↓

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Talasgücü Belediyespor or draw
48%
Talasgücü Belediyespor or Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
77%
Draw or Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
75%

Winning margin

Talasgücü Belediyespor wins by 2+
10%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Talasgücü Belediyespor 1+ goals
71%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 2+ goals
36%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 3+ goals
13%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
85%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
56%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Talasgücü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
33%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talasgücü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talasgücü Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 1.42 + Talasgücü Belediyespor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Talasgücü Belediyespor scores more
25%
level
23%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
52%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
T. KanaryaPenalty
33'
U. Eksi↳ G. Tutcuoglu
52'
T. Kanarya↳ G. Tutcuoglu
55'
T. Kanarya↳ G. Tutcuoglu
85'
C. Yasak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Talasgücü Belediyespor 1–4 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor beat Talasgücü Belediyespor 4-1 in League #553 on February 15, 2026.

Goals: T. Kanarya (30' pen, 52', 55'), U. Eksi (33'), C. Yasak (85').

The match was played at Kayseri Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Yan Açık Saha in Kayseri.