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Talasgücü Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Talasgücü Belediyespor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
G. Demirel 21'
1/31/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 19Kayseri Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Yan Açık Saha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Talasgücü Belediyespor35%
×Draw24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.50
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.33
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.93

allows per match

Talasgücü Belediyespor
2.33
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.67

finishing

Talasgücü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talasgücü Belediyespor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Talasgücü Belediyespor or draw
59%
Talasgücü Belediyespor or Karaköprü Belediyespor
76%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
65%

Winning margin

Talasgücü Belediyespor wins by 2+
17%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Talasgücü Belediyespor 1+ goals
78%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 2+ goals
44%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 3+ goals
19%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
80%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
48%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Talasgücü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
46%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talasgücü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talasgücü Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Talasgücü Belediyespor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Talasgücü Belediyespor scores more
35%
level
24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
41%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
G. Demirel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Talasgücü Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Talasgücü Belediyespor 1-0 in League #553 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: G. Demirel (21').

The match was played at Kayseri Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Yan Açık Saha in Kayseri.