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Talanta vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Talanta
Talanta
FT
2 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
4/9/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Talanta39%
×Draw29%
Wazito FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talanta
1.18
Wazito FC
1.06

Talanta creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 77 away

creates per match

Talanta
0.90
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Talanta
1.36
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Talanta or draw
67%
Talanta or Wazito FC
71%
Draw or Wazito FC
61%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+
16%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals
69%
Talanta 2+ goals
33%
Talanta 3+ goals
12%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
65%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
29%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)
54%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talanta scores more
39%
level
29%
Wazito FC scores more
33%

Talanta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Talanta 2–0 Wazito FC

Talanta beat Wazito FC 2-0 in FKF Premier League on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.