Talanta 1–0 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Talanta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ulinzi Stars

11/27/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 10Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Talanta30%

×Draw30%

Ulinzi Stars40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TalantaExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.11

Talanta

0.93

Ulinzi Stars

1.11

Ulinzi Stars creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 146 away

0.90

creates per match

0.86

1.36

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Talanta

0.90

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Talanta

1.36

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Talanta or draw

60%

Talanta or Ulinzi Stars

70%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

70%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+

11%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals

61%

Talanta 2+ goals

24%

Talanta 3+ goals

7%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

67%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

30%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)

43%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Talanta scores more

30%

level

30%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

40%

Ulinzi Stars at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff