Talanta 0–3 Nairobi City Stars: Result & Stats

Talanta

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nairobi City Stars

4/20/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 25Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Talanta32%

×Draw29%

Nairobi City Stars39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TalantaExpected goals in this matchNairobi City Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.19

Talanta

1.05

Nairobi City Stars

1.19

Nairobi City Stars creates 13% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 84 away

0.90

creates per match

1.02

1.36

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Talanta

0.90

Nairobi City Stars

1.02

allows per match

Talanta

1.36

Nairobi City Stars

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

Nairobi City Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Talanta or draw

61%

Talanta or Nairobi City Stars

71%

Draw or Nairobi City Stars

68%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+

12%

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals

65%

Talanta 2+ goals

28%

Talanta 3+ goals

9%

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

70%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

33%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)

45%

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talanta scores more

32%

level

29%

Nairobi City Stars scores more

39%

Nairobi City Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff