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Talanta vs Muhoroni Youth — FKF Premier League 2018

Talanta
Talanta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
11/10/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Talanta29%
×Draw32%
Muhoroni Youth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talanta
0.86
Muhoroni Youth
1.04

Muhoroni Youth creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Talanta
0.90
Muhoroni Youth
0.71

allows per match

Talanta
1.36
Muhoroni Youth
0.82

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Talanta or draw
61%
Talanta or Muhoroni Youth
68%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
71%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+
10%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals
58%
Talanta 2+ goals
21%
Talanta 3+ goals
6%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
65%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
28%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)
43%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talanta scores more
29%
level
32%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
39%

Muhoroni Youth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Talanta 2–0 Muhoroni Youth

Talanta beat Muhoroni Youth 2-0 in FKF Premier League on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.