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Talanta vs KCB — FKF Premier League 2018

Talanta
Talanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KCB
KCB
5/2/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Talanta26%
×Draw29%
KCB45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talanta
0.88
KCB
1.25

KCB creates 42% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 130 away

creates per match

Talanta
0.90
KCB
1.15

allows per match

Talanta
1.36
KCB
0.85

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Talanta or draw
55%
Talanta or KCB
71%
Draw or KCB
74%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+
9%
KCB wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals
59%
Talanta 2+ goals
22%
Talanta 3+ goals
6%
KCB 1+ goals
71%
KCB 2+ goals
36%
KCB 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)
37%
KCB (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

KCB away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + KCB defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

KCB attack 1.15 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Talanta scores more
26%
level
29%
KCB scores more
45%

KCB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Talanta vs KCB

Talanta beat KCB 1-0 in FKF Premier League on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.