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Talanta vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

Talanta
Talanta
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Bidco United
Bidco United
1/21/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Talanta32%
×Draw30%
Bidco United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talanta
0.97
Bidco United
1.10

Bidco United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 101 away

creates per match

Talanta
0.90
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

Talanta
1.36
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Talanta or draw
62%
Talanta or Bidco United
70%
Draw or Bidco United
68%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+
12%
Bidco United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals
62%
Talanta 2+ goals
25%
Talanta 3+ goals
7%
Bidco United 1+ goals
67%
Bidco United 2+ goals
30%
Bidco United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)
45%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Talanta scores more
32%
level
30%
Bidco United scores more
38%

Bidco United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Talanta 3–5 Bidco United

Bidco United beat Talanta 5-3 in FKF Premier League on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.