Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Takovo vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Takovo
Takovo
FT
3 – 1
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
9/25/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 7Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Takovo57%
×Draw25%
Mihajlovac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.60
Mihajlovac
0.77

Takovo creates 108% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

creates per match

Takovo
1.24
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Takovo
0.94
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
82%
Takovo or Mihajlovac
75%
Draw or Mihajlovac
43%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
31%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
80%
Takovo 2+ goals
47%
Takovo 3+ goals
22%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
54%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
18%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
76%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 1.24 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Takovo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Takovo scores more
57%
level
25%
Mihajlovac scores more
18%

Takovo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Takovo 3–1 Mihajlovac

Takovo beat Mihajlovac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.