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Takovo vs Loznica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Takovo
Takovo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Loznica
Loznica
10/19/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 11Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Takovo41%
×Draw29%
Loznica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.23
Loznica
1.01

Takovo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 39 away

creates per match

Takovo
1.24
Loznica
1.08

allows per match

Takovo
0.94
Loznica
1.23

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Loznica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
70%
Takovo or Loznica
71%
Draw or Loznica
59%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
18%
Loznica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
71%
Takovo 2+ goals
35%
Takovo 3+ goals
13%
Loznica 1+ goals
64%
Loznica 2+ goals
27%
Loznica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
58%
Loznica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Loznica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 1.24 + Loznica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Loznica attack 1.08 + Takovo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Takovo scores more
41%
level
29%
Loznica scores more
30%

Takovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Takovo vs Loznica

Takovo beat Loznica 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.