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Takovo vs Budučnost Krušik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Takovo
Takovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
10/6/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 9Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Takovo45%
×Draw28%
Budučnost Krušik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.31
Budučnost Krušik
0.93

Takovo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 86 away

creates per match

Takovo
1.24
Budučnost Krušik
0.91

allows per match

Takovo
0.94
Budučnost Krušik
1.37

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Budučnost Krušik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
73%
Takovo or Budučnost Krušik
72%
Draw or Budučnost Krušik
55%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
21%
Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
73%
Takovo 2+ goals
38%
Takovo 3+ goals
14%
Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
61%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
24%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
63%
Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Budučnost Krušik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 1.24 + Budučnost Krušik defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Budučnost Krušik attack 0.91 + Takovo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Takovo scores more
45%
level
28%
Budučnost Krušik scores more
27%

Takovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Takovo vs Budučnost Krušik

Takovo and Budučnost Krušik drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.