Tak Chun Ka I 4–0 Toi Seng: Result & Stats

Tak Chun Ka I

FT

4 – 0

Toi Seng

6/10/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 13Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I39%

×Draw19%

Toi Seng42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tak Chun Ka IExpected goals in this matchToi Seng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

2.50

Tak Chun Ka I

2.40

Toi Seng

2.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.41

creates per match

1.13

3.88

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I

1.41

Toi Seng

1.13

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I

3.88

Toi Seng

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Toi Seng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Toi Seng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw

58%

Tak Chun Ka I or Toi Seng

81%

Draw or Toi Seng

61%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

22%

Toi Seng wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

91%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

69%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

42%

Toi Seng 1+ goals

92%

Toi Seng 2+ goals

71%

Toi Seng 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

48%

Toi Seng (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Toi Seng away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Toi Seng defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.40

Toi Seng attack 1.13 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

39%

level

19%

Toi Seng scores more

42%

Toi Seng at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Toi Seng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff