Tak Chun Ka I 3–1 Sporting Macau: Result & Stats

Tak Chun Ka I

FT

3 – 1

Sporting Macau

3/10/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 2Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I53%

×Draw17%

Sporting Macau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tak Chun Ka IExpected goals in this matchSporting Macau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

2.37

Tak Chun Ka I

3.17

Sporting Macau

2.37

Tak Chun Ka I creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.41

creates per match

0.86

3.88

allows per match

4.93

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I

1.41

Sporting Macau

0.86

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I

3.88

Sporting Macau

4.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Sporting Macau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw

71%

Tak Chun Ka I or Sporting Macau

83%

Draw or Sporting Macau

47%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

35%

Sporting Macau wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

96%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

82%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

60%

Sporting Macau 1+ goals

91%

Sporting Macau 2+ goals

68%

Sporting Macau 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

65%

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.17

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

53%

level

17%

Sporting Macau scores more

29%

Tak Chun Ka I at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tak Chun Ka I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff