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Tak Chun Ka I vs Monte Carlo — Primeira Divisão 2026

Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
FT
1 – 2
Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
5/7/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 10Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I17%
×Draw17%
Monte Carlo66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tak Chun Ka I
1.41
Monte Carlo
2.85

Monte Carlo creates 102% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I
1.41
Monte Carlo
1.82

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I
3.88
Monte Carlo
1.41

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par
Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Monte Carlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw
34%
Tak Chun Ka I or Monte Carlo
83%
Draw or Monte Carlo
83%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
7%
Monte Carlo wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
76%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
41%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
17%
Monte Carlo 1+ goals
94%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
77%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
20%
Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Monte Carlo away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Monte Carlo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Monte Carlo attack 1.82 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more
17%
level
17%
Monte Carlo scores more
66%

Monte Carlo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tak Chun Ka I vs Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo beat Tak Chun Ka I 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.