Tajikistan 0–1 Qatar: Result & Stats | Asian Cup

Tajikistan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Qatar

1/17/2024

Asian Cup · Group Stage - 2Al Bayt Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tajikistan12%

×Draw21%

Qatar67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TajikistanExpected goals in this matchQatar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.62

1.85

Tajikistan

0.62

Qatar

1.85

Qatar creates 198% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

2.71

1.00

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Tajikistan

0.67

Qatar

2.71

allows per match

Tajikistan

1.00

Qatar

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tajikistan+0.00on par

Qatar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tajikistan ↓

Qatar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–116%

0–215%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tajikistan or draw

33%

Tajikistan or Qatar

79%

Draw or Qatar

88%

Winning margin

Tajikistan wins by 2+

3%

Qatar wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Tajikistan 1+ goals

46%

Tajikistan 2+ goals

13%

Tajikistan 3+ goals

3%

Qatar 1+ goals

84%

Qatar 2+ goals

55%

Qatar 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Tajikistan (draw refunded)

15%

Qatar (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tajikistan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Qatar away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tajikistan attack 0.67 + Qatar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Qatar attack 2.71 + Tajikistan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tajikistan scores more

12%

level

21%

Qatar scores more

67%

Qatar at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff