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Tajikistan U23 vs Vietnam U23 — Friendlies 2026

Tajikistan U23
Tajikistan U23
FT
0 – 0
Vietnam U23
Vietnam U23
3/23/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tajikistan U2338%
×Draw39%
Vietnam U2323%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tajikistan U23
0.80
Vietnam U23
0.55

Tajikistan U23 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tajikistan U23
0.60
Vietnam U23
0.50

allows per match

Tajikistan U23
0.60
Vietnam U23
1.00

finishing

Tajikistan U23+0.00on par
Vietnam U23+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tajikistan U23 ↓

Vietnam U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–114%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Tajikistan U23 or draw
77%
Tajikistan U23 or Vietnam U23
61%
Draw or Vietnam U23
62%

Winning margin

Tajikistan U23 wins by 2+
13%
Vietnam U23 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tajikistan U23 1+ goals
55%
Tajikistan U23 2+ goals
19%
Tajikistan U23 3+ goals
5%
Vietnam U23 1+ goals
42%
Vietnam U23 2+ goals
11%
Vietnam U23 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tajikistan U23 (draw refunded)
62%
Vietnam U23 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tajikistan U23 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Vietnam U23 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tajikistan U23 attack 0.60 + Vietnam U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Vietnam U23 attack 0.50 + Tajikistan U23 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tajikistan U23 scores more
38%
level
39%
Vietnam U23 scores more
23%

Tajikistan U23 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tajikistan U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tajikistan U23 vs Vietnam U23

Tajikistan U23 and Vietnam U23 drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 23, 2024.