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Tajikistan U20 vs Uzbekistan U20 — Friendlies 2018

Tajikistan U20
Tajikistan U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Uzbekistan U20
Uzbekistan U20
K. Khushvaktov 90', 51' (pen)
A. Tulkinbekov 90' (pen)
5/17/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalHisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tajikistan U2020%
×Draw29%
Uzbekistan U2051%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tajikistan U20
0.67
Uzbekistan U20
1.27

Uzbekistan U20 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tajikistan U20
1.00
Uzbekistan U20
1.33

allows per match

Tajikistan U20
1.20
Uzbekistan U20
0.33

finishing

Tajikistan U20+0.00on par
Uzbekistan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tajikistan U20 ↓

Uzbekistan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tajikistan U20 or draw
49%
Tajikistan U20 or Uzbekistan U20
71%
Draw or Uzbekistan U20
80%

Winning margin

Tajikistan U20 wins by 2+
5%
Uzbekistan U20 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tajikistan U20 1+ goals
49%
Tajikistan U20 2+ goals
15%
Tajikistan U20 3+ goals
3%
Uzbekistan U20 1+ goals
72%
Uzbekistan U20 2+ goals
36%
Uzbekistan U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tajikistan U20 (draw refunded)
28%
Uzbekistan U20 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tajikistan U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Uzbekistan U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tajikistan U20 attack 1.00 + Uzbekistan U20 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Uzbekistan U20 attack 1.33 + Tajikistan U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tajikistan U20 scores more
20%
level
29%
Uzbekistan U20 scores more
51%

Uzbekistan U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Uzbekistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
K. KhushvaktovPenalty
90'
A. TulkinbekovPenalty
90'
K. Khushvaktov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Tajikistan U20 0–3 Uzbekistan U20

Uzbekistan U20 beat Tajikistan U20 3-0 in Friendlies on May 17, 2026.

Goals: K. Khushvaktov (51' pen, 90'), A. Tulkinbekov (90' pen).

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor.