Tajikistan U20 1–1 Kyrgyz Republic U20

Tajikistan U20

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kyrgyz Republic U20

B. Nazarzoda 2'

U. Talantbekov 33'

6/14/2025

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tajikistan U2030%

×Draw29%

Kyrgyz Republic U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tajikistan U20Expected goals in this matchKyrgyz Republic U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.23

Tajikistan U20

1.00

Kyrgyz Republic U20

1.23

Kyrgyz Republic U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tajikistan U20

1.00

Kyrgyz Republic U20

1.25

allows per match

Tajikistan U20

1.20

Kyrgyz Republic U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tajikistan U20+0.00on par

Kyrgyz Republic U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tajikistan U20 ↓

Kyrgyz Republic U20 →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tajikistan U20 or draw

59%

Tajikistan U20 or Kyrgyz Republic U20

71%

Draw or Kyrgyz Republic U20

70%

Winning margin

Tajikistan U20 wins by 2+

11%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tajikistan U20 1+ goals

63%

Tajikistan U20 2+ goals

26%

Tajikistan U20 3+ goals

Kyrgyz Republic U20 1+ goals

71%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 2+ goals

35%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tajikistan U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tajikistan U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Kyrgyz Republic U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tajikistan U20 attack 1.00 + Kyrgyz Republic U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kyrgyz Republic U20 attack 1.25 + Tajikistan U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tajikistan U20 scores more

30%

level

29%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 scores more

41%

Kyrgyz Republic U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyrgyz Republic U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

B. Nazarzoda

33'

U. Talantbekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff