Tajikistan U20 2–0 Afghanistan U20: Result & Stats

Tajikistan U20

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Afghanistan U20

B. Nazarzoda 32'

A. Muratov 9'

5/15/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalTALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tajikistan U2055%

×Draw29%

Afghanistan U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tajikistan U20Expected goals in this matchAfghanistan U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.60

Tajikistan U20

1.33

Afghanistan U20

0.60

Tajikistan U20 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tajikistan U20

1.00

Afghanistan U20

0.00

allows per match

Tajikistan U20

1.20

Afghanistan U20

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tajikistan U20+0.00on par

Afghanistan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tajikistan U20 ↓

Afghanistan U20 →

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–019%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tajikistan U20 or draw

83%

Tajikistan U20 or Afghanistan U20

71%

Draw or Afghanistan U20

45%

Winning margin

Tajikistan U20 wins by 2+

26%

Afghanistan U20 wins by 2+

Team goals

Tajikistan U20 1+ goals

74%

Tajikistan U20 2+ goals

38%

Tajikistan U20 3+ goals

15%

Afghanistan U20 1+ goals

45%

Afghanistan U20 2+ goals

12%

Afghanistan U20 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tajikistan U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Afghanistan U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tajikistan U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Afghanistan U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tajikistan U20 attack 1.00 + Afghanistan U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Afghanistan U20 attack 0.00 + Tajikistan U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tajikistan U20 scores more

55%

level

29%

Afghanistan U20 scores more

17%

Tajikistan U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tajikistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Muratov

32'

B. Nazarzoda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff