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Taizhou Yuanda vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou — League One 2018

Taizhou Yuanda
Taizhou Yuanda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
10/4/2020League OneLeague One · Round 7Shuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taizhou Yuanda38%
×Draw27%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taizhou Yuanda
1.31
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

creates per match

Taizhou Yuanda
1.00
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.15

allows per match

Taizhou Yuanda
1.38
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63

finishing

Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par
Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taizhou Yuanda ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Taizhou Yuanda or draw
64%
Taizhou Yuanda or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
73%
Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
62%

Winning margin

Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+
17%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals
73%
Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals
38%
Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals
14%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
72%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
36%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)
52%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taizhou Yuanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.00 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Taizhou Yuanda scores more
38%
level
27%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
36%

Taizhou Yuanda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Taizhou Yuanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Taizhou Yuanda 2–0 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Taizhou Yuanda beat Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2-0 in League One on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Shuangliu Sports Centre in Chengdu.