Taizhou Yuanda 1–0 Guangzhou R&F: Result & Stats

Taizhou Yuanda

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guangzhou R&F

5/1/2019

FA Cup · 4th RoundTaixing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taizhou Yuanda80%

×Draw17%

Guangzhou R&F4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taizhou YuandaExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou R&F

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.25

Taizhou Yuanda

2.00

Guangzhou R&F

0.25

Taizhou Yuanda creates 700% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

0.50

0.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Taizhou Yuanda

2.75

Guangzhou R&F

0.50

allows per match

Taizhou Yuanda

0.00

Guangzhou R&F

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No81
Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taizhou Yuanda ↓

Guangzhou R&F →

0–011%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–021%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–021%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–014%

3–14%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Taizhou Yuanda or draw

96%

Taizhou Yuanda or Guangzhou R&F

83%

Draw or Guangzhou R&F

20%

Winning margin

Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+

53%

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

Team goals

Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals

86%

Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals

59%

Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals

32%

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

22%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)

95%

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Taizhou Yuanda at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Taizhou Yuanda attack 2.75 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Guangzhou R&F attack 0.50 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Taizhou Yuanda scores more

80%

level

17%

Guangzhou R&F scores more

Taizhou Yuanda at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Taizhou Yuanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff