Taizhou Yuanda vs Changchun Yatai — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Taizhou Yuanda27%
Changchun Yatai48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Changchun Yatai creates 41% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Taizhou Yuanda ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Taizhou Yuanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.00 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16
Changchun Yatai attack 1.90 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Changchun Yatai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Wuhan Zall
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Hangzhou Greentown
Qingdao Huanghai
Beijing Baxy
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Liaoning Hongyun FC
Meizhou Kejia
Yanbian Tigers FC
Shanghai Shenxin
Zhejiang Yiteng
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Dalian Transcendence
Xinjiang TianshanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Taizhou Yuanda host Changchun Yatai on Wednesday, 28 October 2020 at 11:35. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
League One: Taizhou Yuanda 0–2 Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai beat Taizhou Yuanda 2-0 in League One on October 28, 2020.
The match was played at Shuangliu Sports Centre in Chengdu.