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Taizhou Yuanda vs BIT — FA Cup 2019

Taizhou Yuanda
Taizhou Yuanda
FT
1 – 0
BIT
BIT
3/30/2019FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundTaixing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taizhou Yuanda67%
×Draw21%
BIT12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taizhou Yuanda
1.88
BIT
0.63

Taizhou Yuanda creates 198% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Taizhou Yuanda
2.75
BIT
1.25

allows per match

Taizhou Yuanda
0.00
BIT
1.00

finishing

Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par
BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taizhou Yuanda ↓

BIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Taizhou Yuanda or draw
88%
Taizhou Yuanda or BIT
79%
Draw or BIT
33%

Winning margin

Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+
41%
BIT wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals
85%
Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals
56%
Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals
29%
BIT 1+ goals
47%
BIT 2+ goals
13%
BIT 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)
85%
BIT (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taizhou Yuanda at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

BIT away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taizhou Yuanda attack 2.75 + BIT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

BIT attack 1.25 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Taizhou Yuanda scores more
67%
level
21%
BIT scores more
12%

Taizhou Yuanda at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Taizhou Yuanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Taizhou Yuanda 1–0 BIT

Taizhou Yuanda beat BIT 1-0 in FA Cup on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Taixing Sports Center in Taizhou.