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Taiwan CPC vs Tatung — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taiwan CPC
Taiwan CPC
CANC
08:00
Tatung
Tatung
7/7/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 5Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taiwan CPC28%
×Draw24%
Tatung49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taiwan CPC
1.26
Tatung
1.74

Tatung creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 71 away

creates per match

Taiwan CPC
1.13
Tatung
1.85

allows per match

Taiwan CPC
1.63
Tatung
1.39

finishing

Taiwan CPC+0.00on par
Tatung+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taiwan CPC ↓

Tatung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Taiwan CPC or draw
51%
Taiwan CPC or Tatung
76%
Draw or Tatung
72%

Winning margin

Taiwan CPC wins by 2+
12%
Tatung wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Taiwan CPC 1+ goals
72%
Taiwan CPC 2+ goals
36%
Taiwan CPC 3+ goals
13%
Tatung 1+ goals
82%
Tatung 2+ goals
52%
Tatung 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)
36%
Tatung (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taiwan CPC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Tatung away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taiwan CPC attack 1.13 + Tatung defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tatung attack 1.85 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Taiwan CPC scores more
28%
level
24%
Tatung scores more
49%

Tatung at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tatung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan CPC face Tatung (Taiwan Football Premier League)

Taiwan Football Premier League returns with Taiwan CPC hosting Tatung. Match starts July 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Taiwan CPC host Tatung at Kaohsiung National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.