Taiwan CPC 0–3 Taipower: Result & Stats

Taiwan CPC

FT

0 – 3

Taipower

4/21/2021

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 3Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taiwan CPC27%

×Draw25%

Taipower48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taiwan CPCExpected goals in this matchTaipower

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.60

Taiwan CPC

1.13

Taipower

1.60

Taipower creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 56 away

1.13

creates per match

1.57

1.63

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Taiwan CPC

1.13

Taipower

1.57

allows per match

Taiwan CPC

1.63

Taipower

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taiwan CPC+0.00on par

Taipower+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taiwan CPC ↓

Taipower →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Taiwan CPC or draw

52%

Taiwan CPC or Taipower

75%

Draw or Taipower

73%

Winning margin

Taiwan CPC wins by 2+

11%

Taipower wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Taiwan CPC 1+ goals

68%

Taiwan CPC 2+ goals

31%

Taiwan CPC 3+ goals

11%

Taipower 1+ goals

80%

Taipower 2+ goals

47%

Taipower 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)

36%

Taipower (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taiwan CPC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Taipower away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taiwan CPC attack 1.13 + Taipower defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Taipower attack 1.57 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Taiwan CPC scores more

27%

level

25%

Taipower scores more

48%

Taipower at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff