Taiwan CPC 2–3 Tainan City: Result & Stats

Taiwan CPC

FT

2 – 3

Tainan City

4/28/2021

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 3Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taiwan CPC20%

×Draw21%

Tainan City59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taiwan CPCExpected goals in this matchTainan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.10

Taiwan CPC

1.13

Tainan City

2.10

Tainan City creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 56 away

1.13

creates per match

2.57

1.63

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Taiwan CPC

1.13

Tainan City

2.57

allows per match

Taiwan CPC

1.63

Tainan City

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taiwan CPC+0.00on par

Tainan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taiwan CPC ↓

Tainan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Taiwan CPC or draw

41%

Taiwan CPC or Tainan City

79%

Draw or Tainan City

80%

Winning margin

Taiwan CPC wins by 2+

7%

Tainan City wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Taiwan CPC 1+ goals

68%

Taiwan CPC 2+ goals

31%

Taiwan CPC 3+ goals

11%

Tainan City 1+ goals

88%

Tainan City 2+ goals

62%

Tainan City 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)

25%

Tainan City (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taiwan CPC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Tainan City away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taiwan CPC attack 1.13 + Tainan City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tainan City attack 2.57 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Taiwan CPC scores more

20%

level

21%

Tainan City scores more

59%

Tainan City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff