Taiwan CPC 0–1 Taichung Futuro: Result & Stats

Taiwan CPC

FT

0 – 1

Taichung Futuro

4/11/2021

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 1Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taiwan CPC25%

×Draw25%

Taichung Futuro50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taiwan CPCExpected goals in this matchTaichung Futuro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.60

Taiwan CPC

1.06

Taichung Futuro

1.60

Taichung Futuro creates 51% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 69 away

1.13

creates per match

1.58

1.63

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Taiwan CPC

1.13

Taichung Futuro

1.58

allows per match

Taiwan CPC

1.63

Taichung Futuro

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taiwan CPC+0.00on par

Taichung Futuro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taiwan CPC ↓

Taichung Futuro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Taiwan CPC or draw

50%

Taiwan CPC or Taichung Futuro

75%

Draw or Taichung Futuro

75%

Winning margin

Taiwan CPC wins by 2+

9%

Taichung Futuro wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Taiwan CPC 1+ goals

65%

Taiwan CPC 2+ goals

29%

Taiwan CPC 3+ goals

9%

Taichung Futuro 1+ goals

80%

Taichung Futuro 2+ goals

47%

Taichung Futuro 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)

34%

Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taiwan CPC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Taichung Futuro away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taiwan CPC attack 1.13 + Taichung Futuro defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Taichung Futuro attack 1.58 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Taiwan CPC scores more

25%

level

25%

Taichung Futuro scores more

50%

Taichung Futuro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Taichung Futuro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff