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Taipei Red Lions vs Tatung — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
FT
0 – 1
Tatung
Tatung
5/5/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 4Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Taipei Red Lions20%
×Draw21%
Tatung59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taipei Red Lions
1.12
Tatung
2.08

Tatung creates 86% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 71 away

creates per match

Taipei Red Lions
0.85
Tatung
1.85

allows per match

Taipei Red Lions
2.30
Tatung
1.39

finishing

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par
Tatung+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipei Red Lions ↓

Tatung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Taipei Red Lions or draw
41%
Taipei Red Lions or Tatung
79%
Draw or Tatung
80%

Winning margin

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
7%
Tatung wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
67%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
31%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
10%
Tatung 1+ goals
87%
Tatung 2+ goals
61%
Tatung 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
25%
Tatung (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipei Red Lions at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Tatung away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.85 + Tatung defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tatung attack 1.85 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Taipei Red Lions scores more
20%
level
21%
Tatung scores more
59%

Tatung at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tatung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taipei Red Lions vs Tatung

Tatung beat Taipei Red Lions 1-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus in Taipeh.